GroupIntel Prediction Market

Current News Sources
Jul
26
2011
“I explained to God that unless he wanted the Marxist-Islamist alliance and the certain Islamic takeover of Europe to completely annihilate European Christendom within the next hundred years, he must ensure that the warriors fighting for the preservation of European Christendom prevail.”
– Anders Behring Breivik

Another mass murderer is casting himself in the light of a savior. Norway and the world are reeling under the weight of something inexpressible- the wanton slaughter of youth and innocence for publicity. An evil man cloaked in self deluded righteousness wanted to make a statement and call attention to his cause. He succeeded by claiming nearly one hundred lives and releasing his manifesto as a tool for recruiting. Breivik will not be the last to do so.
Extremists are emerging at an alarming rate. They are rejecting their countries, belief systems and leaders while replacing them with a world of conspiracy, paranoia and radicalism. This paranoia and distrust is manifesting into unthinkable evil and horror. I call them lethal minds. They are not only questioning their place in the world, but giving up on it and choosing homicidal mayhem as an appropriate expression of communication to right it. Lethal minds claim divine or political supremacy and in their self-induced frenzy, they are shaking nations.

Years ago I crafted Innate Revolt Theory as an attempt to capture some of the trends in our current global system. Two particular tenets, 4 and 5, are worth reviewing:

4. The forces of globalization are connecting people on different levels like never before. Globalization is challenging the sovereignty of states and the unique cultures and ideas nations and their populations have come to cherish. Over time, instantaneous access to new information produces an influx factor that allows people to have access to a plethora of ideas, cultures and leaders that they were once unfamiliar with. Some of these ideas will be innately resisted and revolt leaders, domestic or external, will play upon the discontent of their followers and list grievances against the current system and the political and thought leaders that uphold it. They will issue and justify a call for violence as a means of purging the system. This is one of the dark sides of connectivity we are currently challenged with.

5. The nation-state will increasing have to deal with fierce challenges for its legitimacy by etherealists, anarchists, hyper patriots/militias, terrorists and numerous others who will utilize violence and propaganda to expand their influence and population bases. Diverse networks will join this movement against the state. Revolt leaders will have to choose how to exercise their influence. Will they seek to overthrow those who are in power and replace it with their new order and vision or remain in the role of challengers, recruiters and detractors? Their thinking is often long-term and strategic.

It is clear that this pattern will continue and spread. Many erroneously jumped to the conclusion when the news broke that it must be the work of radical Islamists, but the reality is this, we are now fighting another front on the war against extremism. It is xenophobia induced terrorism where extremists believe they have to defend their home from the other. Whether the Muslim, Jew, immigrant or political ideas that are inclusive. We will see a castle like approach spreading here in the west and venomous, political, xenophobic, tirades toward the other fueling it. It seems there are pockets where the tolerance level has reached a brink and the new wine is bursting some people’s wine skin/brain. Extremism is not just a sign of the times; unfortunately, it’s a harbinger of the future. Now more than ever, we need a comprehensive approach that includes raising public awareness to confront this.

Apr
12
2011
Dr. Robert J. Bunker has been working for the last few years on assessing the potential use of body cavity bombs (BCB) or body cavity suicide bombs (BCSB) as a variation of suicide bombing tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs).1 Sadly or on the indications and warning (I&W) side fortunately, it seems by careful analysis of transactions and signatures, trends and potentials, and capabilities and intentions (i.e., the Transaction Analysis Cycle)2 Dr. Bunker has forecast a terrorist innovation…
Awareness of this barbaric potential has been increasing among the security services. For example, the French intelligence service has warned of a new terrorism threat from suicide bombers carrying in-body explosives that can’t be detected by standard airport screening.

Read the Full Report

Mar
31
2011
“In a potential escalation of the U.S. attack on Mexican drug cartels, Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, introduced legislation Wednesday to designate four Mexican drug cartels as ‘foreign terrorist organizations’ — a designation that could expose Mexican drug traffickers and U.S. gun runners to charges of supporting terrorism.

McCaul unveiled his legislation targeting the Arellano Feliz Organization, Los Zetas, the Beltran Leyva Organization and LaFamilia Michoacana as his House Homeland Security subcommittee prepares for hearings designed to elicit support for the proposal from four high-level Obama administration officials.”

Source: Bill would label Mexican drug cartels as terrorist groups

Mar
25
2011
“That doesn’t look right.”  The phrase is said or thought by law enforcement officers frequently.  Every officer can relate to situations that leave you wondering what you just saw.  Besides the obscure and ridiculous incident, there are all types of scenarios that don’t quite fit in the category of a standard Incident Report or an Intelligence Report. 

Generally, officers capture this information in an Incident Report or Field Interview Report under the category of “Suspicious Activity” or “Suspicious Person.”  That works to capture this information for others’ use within the agency.  However, in the spirit of information sharing across the LE community, using the newly defined process for Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) is the best fit.

The Nationwide SAR Initiative (NSI) was created to capture suspicious activity on a local or state basis but avails the data for national sharing.  SAR data does not contain reasonable suspicion of criminal activity or criminal predicate but is still more remarkable than regular Dispatch, Field Interview or Incident Reports.  In fact, the data point could have a terrorism link that you may not be aware of.  The officer or citizen that creates a SAR based on their expertise and experience about a situation that they witnessed but they cannot assign a specific criminal activity to it.  Something just doesn’t sit right about what they are seeing.

While on lunch break for the last week Officer Jones has seen a black van sitting outside the Smithville Federal Building.  Every day at 12:15 the van pulls into a 15 minute parking zone in front of the building and the two gentlemen sitting in the van observe the building and appear to be writing.  No loading or unloading occurs during the 10 minutes that the van is parked.  Officer Jones takes note of the license plate and van details.

In this scenario, no crime has occurred.  However, it is odd to Officer Jones that a van will sit outside a federal building and conduct no business inside the building.  Does he have reasonable suspicion of criminal activity?  No.  Is there any reason that this information should be included in an Incident Report?  No.

This is an example of behavioral information that should be put into a SAR and, after appropriate vetting, become available nationally in the shared space.  While the information is of little use to Officer Jones at this time, that van description or license plate might be of large significance to another law enforcement agency or even a terrorism investigation.  Criminal activity, including terrorist planning, is not localized to one jurisdiction or agency.  Therefore, submitting local law enforcement’s SARs to be shared through the SAR shared space makes sense for local, regional and federal law enforcement officials. When you see something that doesn’t look quite right, don’t keep it to yourself, say something. The SAR you file might just be the final piece to a puzzle that saves lives. For more information about SARs and how to participate, visit http://nsi.ncirc.gov.

Libby Stengel is a Principal Consultant for the Memex solutions team at SAS, worldwide provider of intelligence management, data integration, search and analysis solutions (www.memex.com).  Stengel is a former U.S. Army intelligence officer with several deployments to Iraq working all levels of intelligence from debrief, interrogation, analysis to criminal intelligence trainer.  She can be reached at Libby.Stengel@sas.com

Mar
22
2011
“The Clarksburg FBI complex is taking part in a $1 billion project that will enable law enforcement agencies to identify criminals and terrorists by physical characteristics more quickly and accurately, an FBI official said Monday in Charleston.

Earlier this month, the FBI center unveiled its ‘Next Generation Identification System,’ which will slowly replace an older system that can no longer handle the volume of fingerprints sent to Clarksburg. “

Source: FBI center takes on $1 billion ID project   – Business – The Charleston Gazette – West Virginia News and Sports -

Mar
04
2011
“Evidence outlined in a Pentagon contractor report suggests that financial subversion carried out by unknown parties, such as terrorists or hostile nations, contributed to the 2008 economic crash by covertly using vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system.

The unclassified 2009 report ‘Economic Warfare: Risks and Responses’ by financial analyst Kevin D. Freeman, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Times, states that ‘a three-phased attack was planned and is in the process against the United States economy.’”

Source: Financial Terrorism Suspected in 2008 Economic Crash – Financial Terrorism – Fox Nation

Feb
17
2011
I was working as an intelligence analyst for a fusion center early in my intelligence career.  During my daily reading I came across a piece of information that not only had a reliable source with great access, but also seemed to provide key intelligence information.  I quickly grabbed the report and rushed to my supervisor to show him my great find.  He stared at me and said, “So what?”

 The supervisor understood that the information was important but he didn’t know what to do with the raw information.  As that newly minted intelligence analyst I quickly learned to take every piece of information or intelligence provided and figure out why it was important.  A director or even a section lead at an analysis center does not have the intimate knowledge or time that an analyst would have to devote to understanding a specific situation.  I learned that Raw, unanalyzed information is noise that clouds decisions.  Carefully analyzed information can be a decision making tool.

Analysts must:

 Connect the dots

Where does this information fit with the existing understanding of the topic? Is it a new threat stream, trend or person?  How does it affect the mission and goals of my agency?

 Explain - Why should I care about this information?

What makes you believe that this information is important?  Is it time sensitive?  Does it complete the puzzle on a threat or person you had been following?  Is it completely different than what you had seen previously?  Will this change my agency’s view on a topic or person?

 Summarize your thoughts into succinct and convincing statements

Provide not only a summation of the information, but also your educated opinion on the situation.  What will happen if we do nothing?  What will happen if we do something?  Worst case and best case scenarios?

 When encountering several information or intelligence items that you want to combine into a threat assessment, intelligence report or “product,” it is important to analyze each part separately.  Then, look at the information as a whole.  When formatting a report, there are three tips that always help:

 Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF).  This is a one-to-two line summary of what I am going to tell you with my educated opinion included in it.

 Text of Information or Intelligence.  If a piece of intelligence is highly relevant, provide the entire, original text for those who will have time to read it .  In some instances, including a map is helpful for readers.

 So What.  Using the previously listed three musts, tell the reader why they should care about this new or different information.

 The truth is that analysts are the people who make intelligence actionable. Remember, you have far more knowledge about the subject than anyone reading it.  Be the expert and share your insight!  Doing the interpretation and the concise reporting is a foundation for success, so that the most insightful decisions can be made.

Libby Stengel is a Principal Consultant for the Memex solutions team at SAS, worldwide provider of intelligence management, data integration, search and analysis solutions (www.memex.com).  Stengel is a former U.S. Army intelligence officer with four years of active duty, and has served in Iraq working all levels of intelligence including debrief, interrogation, analysis, and also served as a criminal intelligence trainer.  She can be reached at Libby.Stengel@Memex.com

Feb
02
2011
“Secret documents reveal that the three Qatari men conducted surveillance on the targets, provided ‘support’ to the plotters and had tickets for a flight to Washington on the eve of the atrocities.

The suspected terrorists flew from London to New York on a British Airways flight three weeks before the attacks.

They allegedly carried out surveillance at the World Trade Centre, the White House and in Virginia, the US state where the Pentagon and CIA headquarters are located. “

Source: WikiLeaks: FBI hunts the 9/11 gang that got away – Telegraph

Nov
05
2010
“On November 1, 2010, the FBI’s International Operations Division hosted approximately 100 international attachés currently assigned to their countries’ embassies in the United States. These attachés—who represent law enforcement, security, and intelligence agencies from 53 countries—are the counterparts to the FBI’s overseas legal attachés working in offices and sub-offices in 75 key cities around the world.

The embassy representatives were briefed by FBI executives on some of the Bureau’s top operational priorities—including terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, cyber crimes, and international corruption, and are of mutual concern and have global impact.

Referring to last week’s identification of two packages containing explosive materials in transit from Yemen to the United States, Director Robert S. Mueller, III, told participants that this [event] ‘puts an exclamation point’ on the importance of developing international partnerships in response to an increasingly international crime problem. He added that these partnerships can form despite impediments such as different judicial systems, and are built by exchanging information, working cases jointly, and training.

The FBI’s legal attaché program is managed by the International Operations Division (IOD) at FBI Headquarters in Washington, D.C. IOD works closely with other federal agencies, Interpol, foreign police and security officers in Washington, and national and international law enforcement associations. IOD staff conduct liaison and share information with international counterparts in accordance with executive orders, laws, treaties, Attorney General Guidelines, FBI policies, and interagency agreements.”

(FBIFBI Briefs International Partners on Operational Priorities)

Oct
29
2010
“Developed by the DHS Risk Steering Committee (RSC), the purpose of the DHS Risk Lexicon is to establish and make available a comprehensive list of terms and meanings relevant to the practice of homeland security risk management and analysis.

Accomplishing this goal improves the capability of the Department to assess and manage homeland security risk.”

(Source: Homeland Security Releases 2010 Risk Lexicon | Gov Monitor)

Oct
21
2010
“Prime Minister Julia Gillard, Federal Attorney-General Robert McClelland and Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) Director-General David Irvine have opened the Australian Counter Terrorism Control Centre (CTCC) in Canberra.

The CTCC will play a lead role in strengthening the coordination of Australia’s counter-terrorism intelligence efforts, by setting and managing counter-terrorism priorities, identifying intelligence requirements and ensuring that the process of collecting and distributing intelligence is fully harmonised.

It will also support the established roles of Federal and state law enforcement authorities.”

(Source: ASM:: Counter Terrorism Control Centre opened)

Oct
18
2010
“Osama bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri are believed to be hiding close to each other in houses in northwest Pakistan, but are not together, a senior NATO official said.

‘Nobody in al Qaeda is living in a cave,’ said the official, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the intelligence matters involved.

Rather, al Qaeda’s top leadership is believed to be living in relative comfort, protected by locals and some members of the Pakistani intelligence services, the official said.”

(Source: NATO official: Bin Laden, deputy hiding in northwest Pakistan – CNN.com)

Oct
14
2010
This paper explores methods for capitalizing on existing law enforcement intelligence capabilities to provide intelligence support to decision makers for a full spectrum of public safety and emergency service operations. Intelligence-led mitigation is a management philosophy and business process to proactively guide strategic, operational, and tactical decisions for mitigating the effects of intentional, accidental, and natural incidents. There is currently a gap in the intelligence products needed by public safety and emergency service organizations to support their resource decisions, and the quantity and quality of intelligence products they are receiving. This breach between producer and consumer exists across the country and at all levels of government. The intelligence-led mitigation model was designed to demonstrate how the existing principles and processes of intelligence-led policing can be applied to a broader set of incidents, incident phases, and stakeholders in order to effectively and efficiently fill this critical intelligence gap. Read the Report

Aug
13
2010
“In the wake of the city’s laying off 80 police officers last month, Chinatown is leading a new trend in the crime-ridden city: an increase in privately financed public safety. Mr. Chan has asked every business owner to install a street-facing camera. A new Chinatown security force, perhaps staffed by armed guards, could be on the streets as soon as next month, he said. “

(The Bay Citizen – In Oakland, Private Force May Be Hired for Security – NYTimes.com)

Aug
13
2010
“The U.S. and Mexican governments’ inability to significantly disrupt bulk shipments of drug-cartel cash into Mexico means that the violence there will be protracted, U.S. Ambassador Carlos Pascual acknowledged Thursday.

In an interview with The Dallas Morning News and in remarks at a border conference at the University of Texas at El Paso, Pascual said U.S. authorities are stopping a small portion of the cash shipments – $1 billion of the estimated $19 billion to $29 billion from illicit U.S. drug sales entering Mexico each year. That money is financing the most brutal violence in Mexico since the 1910 revolution. “

(Narcotics cash flow into Mexico crucial target, U.S. ambassador says | News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News | Mexico News)

Jul
27
2010
“‘Oh American people…We offered you a peace plan, and mutual benefit; but your governments were proud and haughty, and so the attacks against you followed one after another, everywhere – from Indonesia to Times Square, by way of Madrid and London. And the attacks are ongoing, and more will come one after another,’ said Zawahiri, according to a transcript provided by the Middle East Media Research Institute, based in Washington, DC.

Zawahiri also continued his promise of near victory in Iraq and Afghanistan, among other issues. “

(Source: Al Qaeda Message: Ayman Zawahiri Threatens US Attacks – ABC News)

Jul
23
2010
“India and the U.S. on Friday signed a counter terrorism initiative that includes steps to check financing of terror activities, joint probe in cases of bomb blasts besides cooperation in cyber and border security.

‘Today, with the formal signing of the initiative, we take several significant steps forward against terrorism,’ U.S. ambassador to India Timothy J. Roemer, who signed the agreement along with Home Secretary G.K. Pillai, told reporters here.

Terming the pact as symbolic of the ‘indispensable partnership’ against terrorism, Mr. Roemer said both the countries will work closely in matters like intelligence sharing and probe into bomb blasts.

‘In the coming days and months there will be even closer information sharing and collaborative efforts on issues ranging from bomb blast probe and major event security to mega-city policing, cyber and border security,’ he said. “

(Source: The Hindu : News / National : India, U.S. sign counter terrorism initiative)

Jul
20
2010
“A man identified as Ayman al-Zawahiri, al Qaeda’s No. 2 man, promises his followers victory in Afghanistan and Iraq, vowing that these wars will eventually lead to a battle to liberate Jerusalem, in an audio message posted Monday on jihadist websites.

The audio was released by As-Sahab Media, al Qaeda’s production company. CNN could not verify the authenticity of the message.

Radical Islamists often use the Arab-Israeli struggle as a propaganda tool to recruit militants because they believe that Israel has no right to exist on what they consider to be Muslim and Arab land.”

(Audio purportedly from al Qaeda No. 2 says victory coming – CNN.com)

Jul
20
2010
“A scientific researcher from Westboro is one of a handful of people to be charged in federal court with foreign economic espionage after he allegedly stole information about an organic insecticide developed by Dow Chemical Co. and gave it to a university in China.

Kexue Huang, 45, was arrested July 13 on a federal indictment from the Southern District of Indiana accusing him of 12 counts of theft and attempted theft of trade secrets to benefit a foreign government and instrumentality, and five counts of foreign or interstate transportation of stolen property.

According to FBI Special Agent Alexander H. Arnett Jr., who testified at Mr. Huang’s detention hearing yesterday in U.S. District Court in Worcester, Mr. Huang worked for Dow and allegedly took company information about an organic insecticide to a Chinese university. “

(Scientist charged with economic espionage)

Jul
15
2010
“Despite a growing threat from the Somalia-based group that launched the recent attacks in Uganda, some officials within the U.S. government have failed to embrace efforts by local police departments to gain their own intelligence on the group, according to federal law enforcement officials and others within the U.S. government.

Police departments in cities such as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago have undertaken their own operations — including efforts overseas — to gather intelligence on international terrorist groups like al-Shabaab, the Al Qaeda-linked group that has claimed responsibility for the two bombs that exploded in Kampala, Uganda, on Sunday, killing at least 76 people.

But when it comes to local police efforts to collect their own intelligence, ‘there are some in federal law enforcement who think that is inappropriate,’ according to one federal law enforcement official.”

(Source: Feds Grapple With Locals’ Intelligence Ops « Liveshots)