GroupIntel Predictions

Getting Started

Sign up to trade and create your own market. Begin with $5,000 in virtual currency.
Find markets you want to trade in.
Buy stock and make the value of an answer go up. Sell to make it go down. The price reflects the collective wisdom of all the traders.

Featured Question

Will bin Laden release a statement prior to the U.S. Presidential Election?

What do you think?

Current Leading Prediction:

There is a 35.6% chance "Yes, between Oct 15 - Nov 6, 2008" will be the answer.

Unchanged today

Other Highlights

Today: unchanged

The United States will attack Iran before George W. Bush leaves office.

Current Prediction:

Chances are 25.4%

Announcement

Can a group of people accurately set the homeland security level, determine the current threat environment, and predict future attacks? Following a “wisdom of crowds” hypothesis, the GroupIntel Predictions site will pose a series of essential questions and look for “wisdom” in the aggregation and analysis of the collective responses in a prediction market environment.

Welcome to the GroupIntel Prediction Market. Each user starts with $5,000.00 to invest in a series of international security markets that offer a competitive environment to explore group intelligence issues and determine whether there is any wisdom in our crowd.

If you have a market you would like to create, please create it and it will be reviewed for approval. Once the GroupIntel market reaches 100 active users, we will introduce prizes for the top performers.

Marketplace News

Quest for 100 analysts - Invite your friends

Please invite your fellow analysts and colleagues to participate in the market. As a proof of concept, we would like to get at least 100 analysts participating. Once we pass 100 analysts, we w...

Cash infusion

Given that most of our markets are long-term we've infused $10k into every registered user account to allow you to place additional market investments. Cash infusions will be made once a user ha...

Results of our first market are in...

The market predicted 30 casualties in Iraq for June 2008. The actual number was 31. Not bad folks. Don't forget to invest in July casualties. That marktet's intital number was derived from ...

Most Active Markets This Week

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Popular Tags

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MARKETS + STOCKS	TRADES	TODAY	PREDICTION
U.S. casualties in Iraq for September 2008? Created by: mgd Ends: Sep 15, 2008 @ 11:59 PM PDT	4	$2.00	25.00
Will bin Laden release a statement prior to the U.S. Presidential Election? Created by: mgd Ends: Sep 10, 2008 @ 11:59 PM PDT	4
Yes, between Oct 15 - Nov 6, 2008	3	$10.61	35.6%
Yes, Before September 30th, 2008	0	$-2.97	22.0%
Yes, between October 1-15, 2008	0	$-2.97	22.0%
No message will be released.	1	$-4.67	20.3%
Will a peace deal be reached between Israel and Palestine, by the end of Bush's term? Ends: Jan 20, 2009 @ 12:00 PM PST	32
A peace deal will be signed and ratified	0	$1.12	18.4%
A deal will be signed but not ratified	0	$1.12	18.4%
An agreement reached but not signed	0	$1.12	18.4%
A principles paper will be published	3	$1.12	18.4%
No agreement reached	29	$-4.48	26.4%
bin Laden captured or killed by January 20, 2009? Created by: mgd Ends: Jan 20, 2009 @ 09:00 AM PST	38	$-0.36	23.5%
Will a formal peace deal be signed between Syria and Israel by the end of Bush's term in office? Created by: dwmr Ends: Jan 20, 2009 @ 09:59 PM PST	14	$-1.75	31.6%
Russian and U.S. combat forces will engage in direct combat in Georgia before 1 November 2008. Created by: Flagg707 Ends: Oct 31, 2008 @ 11:59 PM PDT	33	$-2.82	10.0%
Just For Fun - Which team will win the 2009 Super Bowl? Created by: mgd Ends: Oct 15, 2008 @ 07:05 AM PDT	3
Dallas Cowboys	2	$0.80	4.6%
New England Patriots	1	$-0.03	3.7%
Baltimore Ravens	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Cincinnati Bengals	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Cleveland Browns	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Houston Texans	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Indianapolis Colts	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Tennessee Titans	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Buffalo Bills	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Miami Dolphins	0	$-0.03	3.1%
New York Jets	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Denver Broncos	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Kansas City Chiefs	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Oakland Raiders	0	$-0.03	3.1%
San Diego Chargers	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Chicago Bears	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Detroit Lions	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Green Bay Packers	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Minnesota Vikings	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Atlanta Falcons	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Carolina Panthers	0	$-0.03	3.1%
New Orleans Saints	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0	$-0.03	3.1%
New York Giants	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Philadelphia Eagles	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Washington Redskins	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Arizona Cardinals	0	$-0.03	3.1%
San Francisco 49ers	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Seattle Seahawks	0	$-0.03	3.1%
St. Louis Rams	0	$-0.03	3.1%
Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average be above 10,000 on October 17, 2008? Created by: Flagg707 Ends: Oct 04, 2008 @ 05:00 PM PDT	22	$4.52	73.4%
The United States will attack Iran before George W. Bush leaves office. Created by: Andy Ends: Jan 21, 2009 @ 11:59 PM PST	55	$-0.38	25.4%
Will Private Military Contractors (PMCs) be brought in to support humanitarian operations in Darfur by December 31, 2008? Created by: mgd Ends: Oct 15, 2008 @ 11:59 PM PDT	11	$-4.74	36.4%
U.S. casualties in Iraq for July 2008? Created by: mgd Ends: Jul 31, 2008 @ 11:59 PM PDT	28	CLOSED	13.90/ 13.00
Will a publicly rendered (MSM) assassination attempt on the life of Barack Obama occur prior to July 5, 2009 AD? Created by: Meatball1 Ends: Jul 05, 2009 @ 12:00 AM PDT	6
No attempt will be made	2	$0.00	48.5%
Yes - Before July 5, 2009	5	$0.00	27.3%
Yes - Before November 5, 2008	0	$0.00	24.2%
Will France pull its troops out of Afghanistan by December 31st, 2009? Created by: hasty Ends: Nov 01, 2009 @ 11:59 PM PST	5	$0.00	48.9%
Terrorist attack at the summer Olympics? Created by: mgd Ends: Aug 24, 2008 @ 11:59 PM PDT	36	CLOSED	25.7%/ 0.0%
Terrorist attack in the United States between June 15 - August 15, 2008 Created by: mgd Ends: Aug 15, 2008 @ 11:59 PM PDT	41	CLOSED	15.0%/ 0.0%

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